fbref.com is a great site for expected goals.
1) You can sort teams by their expected goals value (xG)
We choose the game: Coszenza vs. Feralpi Salo (Serie B). You can see that Cosenza has xG value of 13,6, the sixth highest value. And they score 14 goals (GF) which is very accurate. Feralpi Salo has xG value of 8,00 and they scored 5 goals. They have the worst xG value and scored less goals than exptected.
2) We sort by expected goals conceded or allowed (xGA). You can see that Feralpi Salo has a value of 16,5 but they received 22 goals. They have the worst defence but also the receive more goals than they should.
3) You can also sort it by Home/Away. Coszenza has the second lowest xGA value with 3,6 at home (but they received 6 goals). Feralpi Salo has a xG value of 3,9 away. Despite that Cosenza received more goals at home than they should, for me all stats indicate that Cosenza could hold the 0 against Feralpi Salo. At home Cosenza scored easier than they should (8,4 xG versus 10 goals)
My bet: Cosenza wins the game (1,84 at pinnacle) (maybe wins the game to nil)
